Abbott Laboratories Stock Is Half What It Used to Be

Technically, Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT  ) stock is trading at half of its 52-week high.

But only technically.

Abbott Laboratories stock hit a high in October of last year of 72.47, but when the new year hit, the company split in two, spinning its drug assets into AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV  ) . Investors that continued to hold AbbVie stock and Abbott Laboratories stock are looking at a combined value above $80 per share.

Much better.

Off the drugs 
Without its drug division, first-quarter earnings required a little juggling to compare apples to apples. Diluted earnings per common share from continuing operations, excluding specified items -- wow, that's a mouthful -- increased 5% compared to the same metric as the year-ago quarter. Basically, the company is pretending like it didn't own AbbVie and then backing out special items from both quarters.

The nutrition business helped drive sales up 3.5% at constant currency. Sales of baby formula and the like were up 9% at constant currencies. Diagnostics were up 6.4% year over year, ignoring currency changes.

Dragging down sales were medical devices, which saw sales drop 3% at constant currency. Much of the decline came from sales of its drug-eluting stent and related products, which fell 15% in the U.S. compared to the first quarter of 2012. U.S. sales are being dragged down by pricing pressure as it competes with Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX  ) and decreased usage by the doctors. Boston Scientific reported a similar experience with U.S. sales of drug-eluting stents down a whopping 33%.

Outside the U.S. sales of the segment actually increased 6.7% thanks to launches into new territories. It's easy to see growth when the comparing quarter has zero sales. Boston Scientific wasn't able to manage that, international sales were down 6.5%

You'll recall that Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  ) saw the writing on the walls and exited the drug-eluting stent business altogether. One has to wonder how long Abbott will give it. Abbott Laboratories stock might actually go up if the company followed Johnson & Johnson's lead.

I doubt we'll see that happen, Abbott just got a new stent, Xience Xpedition, approved in January. Maybe the newest offering can turn things around.

Is Abbott Laboratories stock a buy?
I can see why Abbott split off its drug business; the aforementioned growth in the combined stock price highlights the released value.

Of the two, though, I think AbbVie has greater potential for growth. It's exposed to potential generic competition for its megablockbuster, Humira, but it has a nice pipeline to back it up.

Abbott Laboratories stock isn't going to go anywhere until the company can get its medical device division moving back in the right direction. Unless you're content with holding to collect the dividend, I'd recommend watching for the turnaround before investing.

Abbott Labs has changed forever after losing its branded pharmaceutical business to a spinoff. If you're a current investor, or might be buying shares soon, make sure you truly understand the stock by reading The Motley Fool's brand new premium report on Abbott Labs. The report outlines all of the must-know opportunities and risks, along with a full year of analyst updates to keep you up to speed. Best of all, you can claim this report today by clicking here now.

Why the Dow Rallied 106 Points Today

The market got a helping hand from Europe -- of all places -- today, while positive news on the domestic front combined to send stocks higher. The European Central Bank's decision to cut rates to historic lows in just a few days put equities on firmer ground, coupled with rising consumer spending and a jump in real estate sales. When all was said and done, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) ended up 106 points, or 0.7%, at 14,818.

But as much as those macroeconomic developments were responsible for the rise of the blue chips, it was tech stocks that really lifted the index. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) was one notable beneficiary of tech's popularity surge Monday, adding 2.6%. Since HP has seen its stock slip at the expense of a move to tablets from PCs, today's report showing an uptick in consumer spending doesn't hurt things. 

Although also heavily reliant on the declining PC market, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) tacked on 2.6% as well. While Microsoft's Surface tablet has had some trouble gaining traction and its new Windows 8 operating system hasn't blown anybody away, the company is making legitimate progress in the cloud computing landscape. Its Azure business division just crossed the $1 billion annual sales mark, with subscriptions to its service rising nearly 50% in the last six months alone.

The last of the major tech gainers in the Dow today, IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) added 2.5%. IBM, which for decades has epitomized traditional business technology, is also embracing the cloud. Today it announced a new offering, IBM SmartCloud, which is a feature aimed at facilitating the flow of information in business through a wide swath of possible devices.

But of course not all Dow components could be outperformers. Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) slipped 1%. Some division among its shareholders today on the issue of whether to split the roles of CEO and chairman dragged on the stock, which has rebounded as the company has addressed serious issues with its 787 Dreamliner model.

Boeing operates as a major player in a multitrillion-dollar market in which the opportunities and responsibilities are absolutely massive. However, emerging competitors and the company's execution problems have investors wondering whether Boeing will live up to its shareholder responsibilities. In our premium research report on the company, two of The Motley Fool's best minds on industrials have collaborated to provide investors with the key, must-know issues surrounding Boeing. They'll be updating the report as key news hits, so don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

J.C. Penney Gets a Rare Win

Like seeing a horse named Paste winning the Kentucky Derby, J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP  ) surprised everyone yesterday by winning one of the little battles in its ongoing war with Macy's (NYSE: M  ) . On Friday, a judge ruled that the struggling retailer could sell its Martha Stewart Living (NYSE: MSO  ) -designed -- but not Martha Stewart-branded -- merchandise while its legal proceedings continue to unfold. The good news came the day after J.C. Penney failed to have the case thrown out .

The twist in Friday's ruling was that J.C. Penney will be allowed only to sell the items presented under the J.C. Penney Everyday brand, not those labeled as Martha Stewart designs. The ruling seemed, at least in part, to stem from Judge Jeffery Oing's sympathy for J.C. Penney's plight, and his belief that the company is where it is because of former CEO Ron Johnson's meddling.

What's on the line
The ruling was a breath of fresh air for J.C. Penney, which is sitting on an estimated $100 million worth of inventory that it's been unable to sell. J.C. Penney argues that even if it can't sell Martha Stewart-branded merchandise in its shop-within-a-store concepts, it should be allowed to sell non-branded merchandise. That's a claim Macy's clearly disputes, arguing that the exclusivity of its agreement with Stewart prohibits the company from selling in any other stores, period.

As things stand, the shop idea may go out the window with Johnson's departure. That would leave J.C. Penney with Everyday-branded merchandise as its only real avenue to Martha Stewart products.

J.C. Penney on the ropes
The market was unimpressed by the ruling, and J.C. Penney's stock fell slightly on the day. The company is now reportedly looking for new ways to raise some cash to get it through the downturn. The company has received interest from private-equity firms, according to The Wall Street Journal, and has retained Blackstone Group to help it sort things out. 

Other analysts have theorized that the company may sell itself off, or at least a piece of itself, to stay alive. While the company is currently sitting on a decent pile of cash and very little immediate debt, that situation is changing quickly. J.C. Penney is burning through cash, because of a decrease in sales, and it has $200 million in bonds due in 2015.

The bottom line
This is a win for J.C. Penney, but it's a very small one. The company desperately needs to get out of court and move on to the business of selling the merchandise it already has. As has been the case for the entire proceeding, Macy's is still in a comfortable position to sit back and watch the drama unfold, while J.C. Penney twists in the wind. The best J.C. Penney investors can manage now is cautious optimism -- and that's not a great place to be.

J.C. Penney's stock cratered under Ron Johnson's leadership, but could new CEO Mike Ullman present the opportunity investors have been waiting for? If you're wondering whether J.C. Penney is a buy today, you're invited to claim a copy of The Motley Fool's must-read report on the company. Learn everything you need to know about Penney's turnaround -- or lack thereof. Simply click here now for instant access.

3 Areas You Must Watch at AIG

In this video, Matt Koppenheffer outlines three things AIG investors need to watch:

The new CEO. Current chief Robert Benmosche came out of retirement to lead AIG out of its financial crisis and performed admirably well. Who will take over the reins?  Historically low interest rates that have made life difficult for banks and insurance companies, particularly insurance companies like AIG that underwrite life insurance. The performance of AIG's core businesses. Now that AIG has restructured itself, have its property/casualty and life insurance businesses delivered positive results?

Check out the video for more details.

At the end of last year, AIG was the favorite stock among hedge fund managers. Have they identified the next big multibagger, or are the risks facing the insurance giant still too great? In The Motley Fool's premium report on AIG, financials bureau chief Matt Koppenheffer breaks down the key issues that you need to know about if you want to successfully invest in this stock. Simply click here now to claim your copy, and you'll also receive a full year of key updates and expert analysis as news continues to develop.

The Most Important Tech Story to Follow This Week

In this video, analyst Andrew Tonner talks about Apple's earnings report, which is due next week. The story is certainly the most important in the tech sector, as Apple's stock has been crashing this year.

Andrew focuses on Apple's dividend policy from the upcoming earnings report, as the company is expected to raise its payout on Tuesday. That would not only get investors the return they were waiting for, but it's also likely to improve Apple's share price. Apple's sitting on a $137 billion cash pile and can easily fund a significant dividend increase.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company has been looking at various policies for investors, including an issue of preferential shares. Andrew says it's important not just for Apple to take this step, but to do it on Tuesday.

Check out the video for further details.

There's no doubt that Apple is at the center of technology's largest revolution ever and that longtime shareholders have been handsomely rewarded, with more than 1,000% gains. However, there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

Why Hasbro Is Poised to Keep Jumping

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, toy-maker Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Hasbro, and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Hasbro facts

Headquarters (founded)	Pawtucket, R.I. (1923)
Market Cap	$6.2 billion
Industry	Leisure products
Trailing-12-Month Revenue	$4.1 billion
Management	CEO Brian Goldner (since 2008) CFO Deborah Thomas (since 2009)
Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)	23.5%
Cash/Debt	$1.1 billion / $1.6 billion
Dividend Yield	3.6%
Competitors	JAKKS Pacific  Mattel

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 96% of the 2,004 members who have rated Hasbro believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.   

Just yesterday, one of those Fools, hend6, succinctly summed up the Hasbro bull case for our community:

Heck, even stores like Gamestop are starting to carry board games. A growing population and more families will be buying toys and games, or electronic versions for tablets and computers. Great dividend yield, share buybacks, and relatively strong earnings.

If you want market-thumping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite a strong four-star rating, Hasbro may not be your top choice.

We've found another stock we are incredibly excited about -- excited enough to dub it "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." We have compiled a special free report for investors to uncover this stock today. The report is 100% free, but it won't be here forever, so click here to access it now.

Biogen Bounces Higher on Q1 Results

Dunkin' Brands Expanding in the Philippines

What's in Store for Coach's Earnings

On Tuesday, Coach (NYSE: COH  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

Coach has a strong reputation for its luxury handbags and accessories. But economic weakness throughout the world has led to questions about whether it can sustain its growth pace, especially in formerly red-hot areas like China. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Coach over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Coach

Analyst EPS Estimate	$0.81
Change From Year-Ago EPS	5.2%
Revenue Estimate	$1.18 billion
Change From Year-Ago Revenue	6.8%
Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters	3

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Can Coach bounce back this quarter?
Analysts have reduced their expectations about Coach in recent months, cutting their earnings-per-share estimates for the just-ended quarter by a nickel and reducing full-year fiscal 2013 estimates by $0.17 per share. The stock has also struggled, losing 16% of its value since mid-January.

Until recently, Coach had managed to avoid the downdrafts that tough economic times had caused for many other retailers, gaining a reputation as one of America's best companies. Coach's luxury focus and emphasis on the rapidly growing Asian market helped shelter it somewhat from sluggish conditions in the U.S. during the recovery from the financial crisis.

But over the past year, the threat of a slowing economy in China and other former hotbeds of growth have caused a crisis of confidence for Coach. Rival Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS  ) has been able to sustain growth in other areas of the world, and it has also become especially popular in China, having topped a study of brand demand among consumers searching for products like handbags. By contrast, Coach is much more concentrated in China and therefore stands more to lose from a slowdown there.

Still, many believe that Coach's stock has been hit too hard. Beyond China and the rest of Asia, the retailer has plenty of other international expansion opportunities, with Latin America and Europe being obvious targets for long-term growth. Moreover, its strong customer loyalty and lifetime customer satisfaction help the company hang onto repeat business, boosting total revenue over the long run.

In Coach's quarterly report, look closely to make sure that the company has continued to defend its brand by avoiding the temptation to discount its goods through promotions. Tiffany (NYSE: TIF  ) made the mistake of watering down its brand with lower-price-point offerings during the financial crisis, and it took years for the jeweler to recover from the hit its gross margins took. Coach has avoided that trap so far, but it will need to remain diligent in the face of rising sales pressures abroad to preserve its brand's long-term value.

Coach is having to deal with the fact that Michael Kors has become one of today's hottest high-end fashion brands. But with all that enthusiasm, has Kors' stock finally become too expensive, or is there still room left to run? The Motley Fool's new premium report on Michael Kors gives investors all the information they need to make the right decision. We cover the key must-watch areas, opportunities, and threats to the company that investors need to know. To claim your copy, simply click here now for instant access.

Click here to add Coach to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Why Intel Is Poised to Bounce Back

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, computer chip giant Intel (NASDAQ: INTC  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Intel and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Intel facts

Headquarters (founded)	Santa Clara, Calif. (1968)
Market Cap	$110.0 billion
Industry	Semiconductors
Trailing-12-Month Revenue	$53.0 billion
Management	CEO Paul Otellini (since 2005) CFO Stacy Smith (since 2007)
Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)	24.9%
Cash/Debt	$17.1 billion / $13.2 billion
Dividend Yield	4.2%
Competitors	AMD Samsung Electronics Texas Instruments

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 94% of the 10,056 members who have rated Intel believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just yesterday, one of those Fools, damon1085, tapped the stock as a particularly attractive bargain opportunity:

INTC has a strangle hold on powerful computer chips used in desktops, laptops, and most importantly servers and data centers. The demand for all these chips has been declining in recent years, but it will not die out. This is where mobile comes in. INTC is losing in the mobile market, but they're just now making an effort to create a viable mobile processor. It won't be long before their R&D teams get up to speed and you'll see "Intel Inside" on many mobile devices.    

When it comes to dominating markets, it doesn't get much better than Intel's position in the PC microprocessor arena. However, that market is maturing, and Intel finds itself in a precarious situation longer term if it doesn't find new avenues for growth. In this premium research report on Intel, our analyst runs through all of the key topics investors should understand about the chip giant. Click here now to learn more.

Want to see how well (or not so well) the stocks in this series are performing? Follow the TrackPoisedTo CAPS account.  

10 Ways NASCAR Can Teach Us How to Invest Better: Part 1

Some of you can undoubtedly think of dozens of different ways to occupy your weekend rather than watching supercharged, high-octane supercars travel around a track at 200-plus miles per hour for 100 or more laps.

For the rest of the nation, NASCAR auto racing remains one of the most-watched sports on television. Its growth during the early and mid-portion of last decade was phenomenal and rivaled that of football and baseball in the United States. Things changed, however, when the recession hit, as ticket sales sagged with the economy, and a recent rebound in gas prices has constrained the budgets of individuals who drive hundreds of miles to see a race.

Regardless of how you see NASCAR -- an endless parade of left turns or an exciting free-for-all of horsepower -- I see it as a perfect parallel to describe what investing is all about. Here are the first five of 10 ways that NASCAR can teach us about investing better.

Source: Wikimedia Commons. 

1. There are 40-plus cars competing each week for the top prize
Just as there's a field or 42 or 43 cars running on a track in each given week, competing for a chance to parade around in victory lane, there are some 6,600 companies you can choose to invest in on the major exchanges. There are no guaranteed winners in NASCAR, just as there are no guaranteed companies that any stock will go higher -- yet everyone, and every stock, has a chance at being a winner. What this means as an investor is that you have to understand your investments inside and out, including its points of strength and weakness, as well as who its competitors are.

2. You're going to see a lot of left turns
Unless you happen to be watching one of the few road races, you're going to witness a lot of left turns at a NASCAR race. It may seem repetitive, but no one makes a left turn with such precision and at such high speeds as a NASCAR driver. Likewise, when you're researching for your next investment, you're going to go through many of the same repetitive motions, such as looking through balance sheets, annual reports, and recent news stories. But these repetitive actions are what will shape and define your personal investing philosophy.

This is one of the guiding principles Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) invest on. Buffett truly favors what you might refer to as "repetitive" businesses whose products are always in demand and just make money. Its $23 billion purchase of H.J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ  ) , in collaboration with Brazil's 3G Capital announced in February, is a perfect example. Known best for its ketchup, Heinz represents a boring, but stable, moneymaker whose condiments and food products regularly find their way into consumers' refrigerators and pantries. Buffett is the epitome of a NASCAR driver who's mastered turning left.

3. It's going to be a long race
NASCAR races are typically long, often lasting a few hours. The Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) 600, for example, is set to be run in May this year and is a 600-mile race -- the longest of the season. The point is that investing is like a 600-mile race as well. You aren't going to win on the first lap, even if you get a bonus point for leading the lap.

My Foolish colleague Brian Stoffel chronicled, in a hilarious story last February, the differences of what it would be like had a short-term-minded individual owned Coca-Cola stock compared with a long-term investor. If, from February 1920 through February 2012, a long-term investor had taken Coke's dividends and reinvested them without selling a single share, he or she would have turned a $21 investment into about $9.3 million. Not surprisingly, Berkshire Hathaway is Coke's largest shareholder, with 400 million shares in its investment portfolio as of Dec. 31, 2012. Sticking with a solid company like Coke, ranked as the most valuable brand in the world by Interbrand, is certainly one strategy that could help you "win the race."

4. Chances are very good there will be a crash
If you've watched enough NASCAR races throughout the years, you'd know it's pretty rare for an entire race to go by without at least one accident. Similarly, you're not going to have an up market all the time. Stock market corrections are simply part of the natural ebb and flow of economic cycles, and the key to successful investing is not to panic just because the market is in a downdraft. My Foolish colleague Morgan Housel recently pointed to a Deutsche Bank long-term asset study confirming the point, showing that stock returns averaged 6.49% per year from 1838 through 2012 -- far better than either Treasury bonds or gold.

The point is that if you've been making all of your left turns (i.e., sticking to the investing philosophies that work for you) and conserving your energy for the long race, then a crash simply means the caution flag comes out for a few laps. Once the caution flag lifts, it's back to racing once again!

5. If everyone goes three wide into a turn, there's going to be a crash
As you might imagine, racing around a track at high rates of speed doesn't give NASCAR drivers much room for error when they head into a turn. If three or four cars go into a turn side-by-side, attempting to occupy that same space, the chances for a wreck are greatly magnified.

Warren Buffett said it best that you should "be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." If too many investors are trying to get into the same crowded space at once, that's usually a very bad sign. The poster child here is social-media giant Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) , which was valued as high as $100 billion in secondary markets before its IPO last year. However, the social-media buzz died off almost as quickly as it arrived, with disgruntled traders pushing Facebook below $19 (down 58% from its all-time high) before it finally found its footing. The lesson here is that short-term trends and fads should be treated as white noise, and you shouldn't allow yourself to be caught up in them. Otherwise, you could end up in the DNF (did not finish) column.

Stay tuned tomorrow for Part 2 of how NASCAR can teach us about investing better.

Should Coca-Cola remain a portfolio staple?
Coca-Cola's wide moat has helped provide its shareholders with superior gains in the past, but the company faces some new threats to its continued market dominance. The Motley Fool recently compiled a premium research report containing everything you need to know about Coca-Cola. If you own or are considering owning shares in the company, you'll want to click here now and get started!

IBM Almost Singlehandedly Sabotages the Dow

Don't let today's performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) fool you. While the blue-chip index is down slightly, 24 of its 30 components are higher late in the trading session. The broader S&P 500 is also making moderate gains.

The discrepancy owes to the Dow's peculiar construction. Unlike other stock indexes like the S&P 500, which use market capitalization to weight the component parts, the Dow's weighting is based strictly on share price. As a result, the most expensive stock carries the most weight, and the cheapest stock the least.

The reason the Dow is underperforming its broader counterpart, in turn, is that its most heavily weighted component, IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) , is getting absolutely slammed today, down by 8% in afternoon trading. Selling for $190 per share, the technology and business services giant accounts for almost 11% of the Dow's daily deviations.

After the market closed yesterday, IBM reported earnings that are clearly not sitting well with investors. While the company's first-quarter net income rose by 3% to $3.4 billion, or $3 per share, it nevertheless missed analyst estimates of $3.05 per share. And on top of that, its quarterly revenue declined by 5% on a year-over-year basis.

Following the release, analysts rushed to cut price targets. According to Reuters, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus cut his target by a dollar to $240, while one at RBC cut his by $15 down to $200 and a Deutsche Bank analyst wrote in a note to clients that "the IBM miss is a decidedly negative read through for the entire IT hardware segment and we are incrementally more cautious on the sector; particularly those with a March quarter end."

Adding to the Dow's woes are shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) , which are down by 4% and 2%, respectively. While GE's earnings, announced earlier today, increased by 16% on a year-over-year basis and finished in line with analyst estimates, the company tempered forward guidance, thanks in large part to Europe.

McDonald's similarly reported underwhelming results. As The Wall Street Journal noted, profit at the fast-food giant "barely budged" in the first three months of the year. And to add insult to injury, its pivotal same-store sales figure fell by 1% on a year-over-year basis. According to CEO Don Thompson, "While the Company's results for the quarter reflected difficult prior year comparisons and the ongoing impact of global economic headwinds, we continue our efforts to build market share and deliver sustained profitable growth for all stakeholders."

Suffice it to say, it's been a trying week for many investors. The silver lining is that with many blue-chip stocks now finished reporting first-quarter results, the market could soon settle back down.

McDonald's turned in a dismal 2012, underperforming the broader market by 25%. Looking ahead, can the Golden Arches reclaim its throne atop the restaurant industry, or will this unsettling trend continue? Our top analyst weighs in on McDonald's future in a recent premium report on the company. Click here now to find out whether a buying opportunity has emerged for this global juggernaut.

Stock News: Energy Edition

Headlines have always been instrumental in the process of disseminating news to readers. In today's world of Internet consumption and clickability, they have become even more important to organizations competing for views. Sometimes our visceral reaction to a headline shapes the way we interpret the content that follows, regardless of what it actually means -- if it means anything at all. It is important for investors to stay grounded and not let headlines color our interpretation of important information. Today, I'll look at three current energy headlines and attempt to separate the signal from the noise.

Ripped from the headlines
We'll get started with the classic upgrade or downgrade of a stock news. We have this note on a master limited partnership from Zacks.com:

"Energy Transfer Partners Upgraded to Buy"

If you are a unitholder in Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP  ) , you might not even click on this article. A simple fist pump, and you're moving on. But these short pieces can clue you in to what other people are thinking about your investment, potential changes you may need to make to your investment thesis, and how credible the stock-rating organization is.

In this case, Zack's is upgrading Energy Transfer based on its fourth-quarter results and the partnership's announcement to buy out the remaining stake in ETP Holdco. The post doesn't mention any potential downside, nor does it address risk, so if you aren't already a unitholder, there is clearly not enough information here to make an investment decision. The news that someone thinks it is a buy right now may give you warm feelings about a stock, but make sure you put in the research time before you pick up shares.

Now let's move on to articles about movements in oil prices, because those come out basically every day:

"Brent Crude Falls Below $100 a Barrel"

For whatever reason, every time the price of oil rises and falls -- regardless of the gravity of change -- it counts as news. This is as good a time as any to look at the five-year price movements for Brent crude:

Source: Brent Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts.

Through a series of almost daily up and down movements, Brent crude has slowly risen over the last four years. The day-to-day change in price is immaterial; it makes more sense to know what prolonged high or low oil prices mean for your stocks.

For that, you'll want to check out comparisons of a variety of different energy stocks and whether they do or do not track the Brent and WTI oil movements. Midstream companies like Enterprise Products Partners march to the beat of their own drum, while independent oil and gas companies like Canadian Natural Resources track the price of black gold a bit closer. Year to date, Enterprise is up 20%, Canadian Natural Resources is up just shy of 2%, and the price of Brent has fallen about 7%.

Last but not least, we have the now-ubiquitous news headline about energy independence:

"Energy independence will depend on overall economy's health"

This brings up a lesson I need to learn myself, as I often begin to build arguments refuting articles about energy independence before I have even read them. It is impossible to be energy independent, my thinking goes, while we remain so dependent on oil.

This particular article is different from the rest because it has a caveat in the headline. As we read further along, we come across a couple of other points that set this piece apart from many others. First, the article acknowledges that U.S. energy production is increasing, but that its effect on American energy self-sufficiency is debatable.

Next, you have this statement from an Energy Information Administration analyst: "If you change assumptions about key factors, it can have a very significant impact on the long term projections." This alone goes a long way in demonstrating that this agency, which many investors depend on for data, is developing its ideas and acknowledging there are multiple outcomes for our energy situation right now.  Compare that to a site that preaches one idea and one idea only, and you see what I'm getting at. There is perhaps nothing more important in interpreting stock news than recognizing which sources provide value and which do not.

Foolish bottom line
We're facing the greatest likelihood of change to our energy systems since the industrial revolution. As a result, while we can ignore many headlines, we shouldn't ignore them all. Evaluating the real meaning behind energy news stories takes time, but it will be worth it.

It's easy to forget the necessity of midstream operators that seamlessly transport oil and gas throughout the United States. Kinder Morgan is one of these operators, and one that investors should commit to memory due to its sheer size – it's the fourth largest energy company in the U.S. – not to mention its enormous potential for profits. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on Kinder Morgan, we break down the company's growing opportunity -- as well as the risks to watch out for -- in order to uncover whether it's a buy or a sell. To determine whether this dividend giant is right for your portfolio, simply click here now to claim your copy of this invaluable investor's resource.

Danger Zone 4/17/2013: Stanley Black & Decker

3 Can't-Miss FDA Actions This Week

Earnings season is getting ready to rev into high gear, but earnings are unlikely to be the talk of the sector in the days to come, with three big Food and Drug Administration actions expected in the coming week.

No headaches for Allergan shareholders
Up first is the PDUFA decision on Allergan's (NYSE: AGN  ) inhaled migraine medication Levadex on Monday. MAP Pharmaceuticals received a complete response letter for Levadex in March 2012 because of manufacturing deficiencies and its delivery device. Levadex wasn't denied, though, based on safety or efficacy. This was a clean cue to investors that Levadex's approval seemed like a sure thing barring it worked hand-in-hand with the FDA to meet its demands. With Allergan taking that cue as a reason to buy MAP earlier this year for $958 million, Monday represents decision day as to whether the company has made adequate fixes to its delivery device and manufacturing process to satisfy the FDA.

Levadex's approval or rejection could also mean a good or bad day for Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ: NKTR  ) , which looks to gain from royalty rights based on its contributions to Levadex's development. While impossible to predict, I'm going to go out on a limb and project an approval for Allergan.

A revolutionary COPD treatment?
On Wednesday, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD, treatment collaborators GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK  ) and Theravance (NASDAQ: THRX  ) are set to go before the FDA's panel with their combo Breo Ellipta. This revolutionary drug combines Theravance's long-acting beta-2 agonists with Glaxo's long-acting muscarinic antagonists into a dry powder inhaler to provide long-term COPD relief.

Studies of Breo Ellipta didn't show statistically significant effects at all doses examined (clinical trials are a bit of trial and error on dosing), but they all showed a measurable improvement in lung function, although not all increases were dubbed significant. In addition, the adverse event profile of Breo Ellipta was similar to the current standard of treatment.  

As for Wednesday, I believe the patient pool should be enough to satisfy the FDA panel, but I'm concerned that it may focus on some of its non-statistically significant trials as a sticking point. Overall, I'm leaning toward a positive review from the FDA's panel, but we'll find out more on Wednesday.

Is this the End-o for Aveed?
Finally, on Thursday we have an FDA panel meeting for Endo Health Solutions' (NASDAQ: ENDP  ) Aveed, with is an extended-release male hypogonadism treatment.

The drug itself was acquired when Endo purchased Indevus Pharmaceuticals in early 2009 and is on its second go-around after receiving a complete response letter in its first attempt to gain approval. That CRL spelled out the FDA's concerns regarding very rare, but serious, adverse side effects, which included post-injection anaphylaxis and pulmonary oil microembolism. The FDA also noted that Endo's risk evaluation and mitigation strategy was insufficient. 

It's been more than three years since that initial CRL, so this should definitely be an interesting FDA panel meeting to say the least. Safety remains the primary concern, which the FDA panel may touch on and will more than likely determine how likely Aveed is to be approved once it goes before the FDA itself.

While you can certainly make huge gains in biotech and pharmaceuticals, the best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. The Motley Fool's free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich" names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.

Allison Transmission Doubles Dividend

Approving an increase in the quarterly cash dividend paid to shareholders, transmission manufacturer Allison Transmissions (NYSE: ALSN  )  announced today that its board of directors doubled the payout from $0.06 per share to $0.12 per share while also providing preliminary estimates for its first quarter, which ended March 31.

Allison began paying the $0.06-per-share dividend in the second quarter of 2012. The new, higher payment will be made on May 31 to stockholders of record at the close of business May 17, though the board notes any future quarterly dividends will be at their discretion based on factors including financial performance.

Allison said it expects first-quarter net sales to be in the range of $455 million to $460 million and adjusted EBITDA (excluding technology-related license expenses) to be in the range of $144 million to $149 million, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 32%. These expected results are consistent with management's expectations and the company said they reflect "considerably" lower demand in the North America energy sector's hydraulic fracturing market and reductions in defense sales.

However, the transmission maker affirmed full-year 2013 guidance it released Feb. 19 when it said it expected net sales to decline in the range of 6% to 8% and adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding technology-related license expenses) would be in the range of 32% to 34%. 

Allison Transmissions bills itself as the world's largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and hybrid-propulsion systems for transit buses.

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Will Tesla Motors Really Build Trucks in Texas?

Is Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) really planning to build a new factory to make electric trucks -- in Texas?

"Planning" probably overstates things some. But the Silicon Valley-cool maker of electric cars seems to have a pickup in its future plans -- and its CEO said this week that a factory in Texas could be in the cards.

Tesla needs a favor in Texas
As always with Tesla, there's more to the story.

Here's the background: Tesla's rock-star CEO, Elon Musk, was in Austin this week, pressing Texas state lawmakers to pass a measure that would allow his company to sell its cars directly to consumers.

Most automakers sell to their U.S. customers via franchised dealerships, which are usually locally owned. That system has been in place for many decades -- and those local dealer-owners have encouraged their local politicians to pass laws protecting their franchises over time.

Many states have laws that, shall we say, strongly encourage automakers to sell via dealer franchises. But Tesla doesn't play from that rulebook. Taking a page (several pages, actually) from Apple and its wildly successful retail strategy, Tesla sells directly to its customers via factory-owned stores.

In several states, Tesla's stores have taken heat from local dealer associations and state legislators. Some of that heat has ended up in court: Earlier this year, Tesla got Massachusetts courts to dismiss a lawsuit that sought to shut down a Tesla store there.

But Tesla doesn't have a store in Texas, because Texas' rules about car-dealer ownership are probably the strictest in the country. That lack is probably costing Tesla quite a few sales. That's why Musk went to Austin to lobby state legislators for an exemption -- and that's why he dangled the possibility of a future Tesla truck factory in Texas.

Was this just a carrot for lawmakers? Or a real plan?
Musk might actually have a chance of winning this battle. Texas Gov. Rick Perry said last month that he would support allowing direct sales of electric cars, if legislators were to approve such an exemption.

But the exemption faces stiff opposition from the Texas Auto Dealers Association, which howled predictably about how an exemption for Tesla would "limit free enterprise" and somehow inflate the cost of new cars. (Their case may sound dubious, but dealers' contributions to local legislators' re-election campaigns probably speak louder than any argument the dealers' association might be able to make here.)

That's probably why Musk felt the need to drop a carrot. He told Automotive News that Tesla would start investing more in Texas if the company won the sales exemption. Those investments would include new Tesla retail stores, of course, but Musk said they might include something else in a few years -- a second Tesla factory.

And what would that second factory make? A "really advanced electric truck," Musk said. He says he has an idea in mind for such a vehicle, and that it might make sense to produce it at a new plant -- but probably not for several years.

Is that really going to happen?

Don't hold your breath, Texas
I'm totally willing to believe that Musk has a great idea for an electric truck -- the Model S turned out well -- but I'm a little skeptical of the idea that Tesla will be building a new factory in Texas any time soon.

Tesla already has a big factory in Northern California, bought from Toyota (NYSE: TM) in 2010. It's a huge facility, and large portions of it are currently standing unused. The company has lots of room to expand its operations on-site before it will need additional manufacturing space.

Tesla's sales of its first mass-produced car, the upscale Model S sedan, have been quite good -- the company expects to build 20,000 cars this year. But Tesla is still a long way from the production volumes that would require a second factory.

In its factory's heyday, when it was jointly operated by Toyota and General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) , it produced 6,000 vehicles a week, or almost 300,000 a year.

Tesla has a long way to go before it hits anything like those numbers. And until it does, I'm skeptical that the company will spend big bucks to build a second factory far from its headquarters. Even in Texas.

Will Tesla's growth really continue?
Near-faultless execution has led Tesla Motors to the brink of success, but the road ahead remains a hard one. Despite progress, a looming question remains: Will Tesla be able to fend off its big-name competitors? The Motley Fool answers this question and more in our most in-depth Tesla research available for smart investors like you. Thousands have already claimed their own premium ticker coverage, and you can gain instant access to your own by clicking here now.

Ford is Selling a Lot of Hybrids

Ford's Fusion Hybrid. Photo credit: Ford Motor Company

Here's a bit of good news for Ford (NYSE: F  ) : The Blue Oval's sales of hybrids were up 324% in the first quarter, thanks to strong sales of several new models.

Ford now has a 16% share of the U.S. market for "electrified vehicles" – electric cars and hybrids, it said on Wednesday.

And even better for Ford, many of the hybrids it's selling are loaded.

A serious push into the green-car market for Ford
Ford said that it sold 21,080 hybrid vehicles in the U.S. in the first quarter. That's not a huge number when compared to something like Ford's pickup sales, but hybrids don't (yet) represent a huge market. Market leader Toyota (NYSE: TM  ) sold 55,724 Priuses here in the first quarter, along with hybrid versions of several of its other models.

Clearly, Ford has a long way to go to catch up with Toyota on the hybrid front. But, just as clearly, the automaker that only a few years ago was known mostly for its pickups and SUVs has made good progress with its greener models in a short time.

It's already paying off for Ford. The company said on Wednesday that its hybrid and plug-in versions of the Fusion sedan and C-MAX compact were helping Ford make inroads into markets that were previously cold to the Detroit automakers – like California. Ford says that 73% of Fusion Hybrid buyers in Los Angeles, and 77% in San Francisco, are coming to Ford from another brand.

What's more, those sales are particularly profitable ones for Ford, because hybrid buyers turn out to like lots of high-tech options.

Why these sales are particularly profitable
As is true with most automakers, options packages are worth big bucks to Ford. The profit realized by the manufacturer on any given car or truck increases significantly if it's loaded with options, and Ford has put a lot of effort into offering premium options packages that have strong appeal with buyers.

Ford says that 70% of Fusion Hybrid buyers are opting for the MyFord Touch package, Ford's well-known touchscreen "infotainment" system, versus about 50% of buyers of the conventional gas-powered Fusion. Ford also says that Fusion Hybrid buyers select high-tech safety options, like its blind-spot alert and active parking assist systems, at about twice the rate of regular Fusion buyers.

That should add up to an outsized contribution to Ford's bottom line -- and another reason why this is a good business for Ford to be capturing.

Competing well with Toyota
As I said above, Ford still has a ways to go to catch Toyota, still the undisputed global hybrid leader. But Ford's making progress: Ford cited data from Edmunds.com showing that the Fusion Hybrid and C-MAX Hybrid were getting "consideration" from potential buyers roughly equal to Toyota's Camry Hybrid and Prius.

The company also pointed out that it was winning those sales with incentives that have been lower than Toyota's. It's one more sign that the company once identified with gas-guzzling SUVs is doing a pretty good job of selling its new, greener self.

Is Ford a buy right now?
If you're concerned that Ford's turnaround has run its course, relax -- there's good reason to think that the Blue Oval still has big growth opportunities ahead. We've outlined those opportunities in detail, in the Fool's premium Ford research service. If you're looking for some freshly updated guidance to Ford's prospects in coming years, you've come to the right place -- click here to get started now.

Why I Finally Bought Whole Foods Stock

Over the past two decades, organic grocer Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFM  )  has quietly proven itself to be one of the most incredible growth stories our stock market has to offer.

Take a look at what Whole Foods stock has done for investors since its IPO in 1992:

Source: WFM Total Return Price data by YCharts.

And, no, that "K" isn't a typo. Including dividends, Whole Foods stock has indeed helped early investors return more than 30 times their money.

Lately, however, many are wondering whether the stock has already seen its best days, especially after the shares dropped like a sack of potatoes following the release of the company's less-than-stellar fiscal first-quarter results back in February.

So why buy now?
As a result, you might be wondering why I finally decided to add shares of Whole Foods Market to my personal portfolio earlier this week. After all, haven't we already missed the party?

In a word: Nope.

As I pointed out two months ago, the quarterly results weren't all that bad. In fact, the company remains solidly profitable, and still expects sales growth for 2013 to come in between 10% and 11%. Short-term oriented traders, however, weren't too keen on the fact that it was a decrease from the 13.7% growth achieved in 2012.

Curiously enough, the primary culprit for the miss lies in Whole Foods' insistence on focusing more energy on value-oriented items to broaden their consumer appeal. As fellow Fool Joe Tenebruso noted recently, "Whole Foods is a company that is doing well by doing good," and fast-becoming a "lifestyle brand" where people want to shop. Why? Because they trust its quality, enjoy the experience, and believe management when they say the company wants to make a positive difference in the world.

Source: Whole Foods. 

In short, Whole Foods is about as Foolish (with a capital "f") a company as they come, and any investor can feel great about owning its stock.

What's more, Whole Foods management plans to increase the total number of domestic stores to 1,000, or nearly triple the 345 total locations it currently maintains. If that sounds aggressive, consider that grocery giant Safeway (NYSE: SWY  ) currently has more than 1,600 locations, and the behemoth SUPERVALU  (NYSE: SVU  ) boasted more than 5,000 stores at the end of last year. Compared to both Safeway and SUPERVALU, at least, Whole Foods has plenty of room to grow -- and plenty of market share to grab along the way.

As it stands, Whole Foods is currently building around 10 new units per quarter, so it's safe to say that today's investors can still enjoy many years of steady, predictable growth going forward. And thanks to its strong free cash flow and cash and investments of $1.2 billion at the end of last quarter, the company should have no problems financing both its expansion and $0.20-per-share quarterly dividend.

As usual, this is a long-term play for me, so I fully intend to hold Whole Foods stock in my portfolio for at least the next decade. If you do the same, I'm convinced you'll be more than satisfied with the end result.

If you'd still like to learn more about Whole Foods, check out our brand-new premium report on the company, in which we walk through the key must-know items for every Whole Foods investor, including the main opportunities and threats facing the company. Make sure to claim your copy today by clicking here.

Wednesday's Top Upgrades (and Downgrades)

This series, brought to you by Yahoo! Finance, looks at which upgrades and downgrades make sense, and which ones investors should act on. Today, our headlines include new buy ratings for IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) and Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM  ) . But it's not all good news, so let's start off with a look at why one analyst is ...

Pulling the plug on Netflix
Stock markets are up this morning, but over at Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) , all investors are seeing is a static. Thanks in part to an initiation at "underweight" by Evercore Partners today, Netflix shares are sitting out the rally, and actually are down a fraction of a percent in late morning trading.

Why? In a word: competition. Evercore worries that even if it was the top dog and first mover in streaming video, the market is big enough to support more than one major player. If Netflix has to contend with one or more rivals, it will have to bid higher prices to license content from creators. This will raise the company's cost of business. Meanwhile, price competition on the delivery end will prevent the company from passing higher content costs on to consumers. Thus, Netflix will see its profit margins squeezed on both ends.

All of this adds up to limited potential from profit growth at a company whose shares already cost 575 times earnings. With a 20% expected growth rate, that share price was always in danger. Now, Evercore is warning investors that the danger is even greater than we thought. The analyst thinks it's best to lighten up your exposure to Netflix now, and I agree.

Go big with Big Blue? 
Looking for a better bargain? UBS thinks it's found one in the shares of IBM, which the Swiss banker just upgraded to buy Wednesday morning.

The analyst here thinks IBM shares could be worth $235 within a year, and while I don't think UBS is right about that, it's at least in the ballpark. Here's why:

IBM shares currently cost about 14.7 times earnings. That's not a whole lot to pay for a stock growing earnings at close to 11%, and paying a 1.6% dividend. On the other hand, though, IBM isn't generating quite as much cash as its income statement suggests. It generated only about $15.5 billion in true free cash flow last year, versus reported "net income" of $16.6 billion. Large numbers either way, but the one isn't as big as the other, and to me, this suggests that IBM's about 7% more expensive than it looks -- or even more, once you factor the company's $22 billion debt load into the picture.

All in all, I see IBM as a great company, but one that's not worth the 16.5 enterprise value to free cash flow ratio that its current share price implies. While UBS's promised 10%, one-year profit from the shares could happen, I wouldn't bet on it.

Have you driven a [Toyota] lately?
Toyota and Ford (NYSE: F  ) are feuding today over Ford's claim that its "Focus" became the world's top-selling sedan in 2012. (Toyota says the winner is Corolla). This morning, though, analysts at Guggenheim came out firmly in favor of the incumbent.

Regardless of whether Ford took top honors for sales of a single class of car, Guggenheim thinks Toyota stock is a buy, and initiated coverage of Toyota with this rating Wednesday. But is Guggenheim right?

On the surface, the case seems open and shut. Toyota shares, at 17.6 times earnings, cost nearly twice as much as Ford at a 9.1 P/E. Toyota's also carrying a bigger debt load, and paying a dividend yield less than half of Ford's generous 3.1% payout. Advantage: Ford.

On the other hand, Toyota has a few factors in its favor as well. The company generated $6.6 billion in positive free cash flow last year, which was nearly twice Ford's $3.6 billion cash haul. And most analysts polled see Toyota growing its profits in excess of 40% per year over the next five years as it rebounds from a sales slump, and capitalizes on an export-friendly, weakened Yen. Ford's projected growth rate, in contrast, is a relatively plodding 10.5%.

In short, if growth estimates prove out in both cases, Guggenheim probably has a point here. Ford looks like the cheaper stock today -- but Toyota's future is brighter.

Fool contributor Rich Smith has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Ford and Netflix. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford, International Business Machines, and Netflix.

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App Stores to Generate $25 Billion

Certain sectors of the economy remain extremely robust despite global macroeconomic challenges. In particular, the mobile app economy is expected to reach surpass $25 billion this year, according to ABI Research. Smartphones are expected to rake in $16.4 billion of app spending, leaving $8.8 billion for tablet app spending. By 2018, ABI expects that tablet app purchases will grow larger than smartphone app spending. In this video, Motley Fool contributor Steve Heller discusses the details of this report and which companies are likely in the best position to benefit. The two big winners? Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) . 

There's a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple, and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

Argan's Margin Hot Streak Continues

Margins matter. The more Argan (AMEX: AGX) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Argan's competitive position could be.

Here's the current margin snapshot for Argan over the trailing 12 months: Gross margin is 16.6%, while operating margin is 11.7% and net margin is 7.7%.

Unfortunately, a look at the most recent numbers doesn't tell us much about where Argan has been, or where it's going. A company with rising gross and operating margins often fuels its growth by increasing demand for its products. If it sells more units while keeping costs in check, its profitability increases. Conversely, a company with gross margins that inch downward over time is often losing out to competition, and possibly engaging in a race to the bottom on prices. If it can't make up for this problem by cutting costs -- and most companies can't -- then both the business and its shares face a decidedly bleak outlook.

Of course, over the short term, the kind of economic shocks we recently experienced can drastically affect a company's profitability. That's why I like to look at five fiscal years' worth of margins, along with the results for the trailing 12 months, the last fiscal year, and last fiscal quarter (LFQ). You can't always reach a hard conclusion about your company's health, but you can better understand what to expect, and what to watch.

Here's the margin picture for Argan over the past few years.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of seasonality in some businesses, the numbers for the last period on the right -- the TTM figures -- aren't always comparable to the FY results preceding them. To compare quarterly margins to their prior-year levels, consult this chart.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Here's how the stats break down:

Over the past five years, gross margin peaked at 16.3% and averaged 13.6%. Operating margin peaked at 9.3% and averaged 6.4%. Net margin peaked at 6.5% and averaged 3.4%. TTM gross margin is 16.6%, 300 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM operating margin is 11.7%, 530 basis points better than the five-year average. TTM net margin is 7.7%, 430 basis points better than the five-year average.

With recent TTM operating margins exceeding historical averages, Argan looks like it is doing fine.

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Add Argan to My Watchlist.

Football Cards: 2013 NFL Draft Cause for Concern?

Last year was a banner one for football cards, highlighted by an unusually strong 2012 NFL rookie class.

That rookie class featured what looks to be at least three elite quarterbacks, including Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins, Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks, and Andrew Luck, who set single-season and single-game rookie passing yardage records and led an Indianapolis Colts team that was the league's worst in 2011 to 11 wins and the playoffs in 2012. Griffin and Wilson both ranked in the NFL's top five in passer rating, and both led their teams to the playoffs as well. Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins could very well join this elite group in the next year or two.

The 2012 draft class also had two rookie running backs who ended up in the top five in the league in rushing yardage -- Doug Martin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and sixth-round pick Alfred Morris of the Washington Redskins -- as well as a rookie linebacker in Luke Kuechly of the Carolina Panthers, who led the league in tackles. In addition, RB Trent Richardson of the Cleveland Browns and wide receiver Justin Blackmon of the Jacksonville Jaguars -- the third and fifth overall picks in the 2012 NFL Draft, respectively, may yet pan out as elite players.

The strong rookie class has made its impact on cardboard prices. As demand has increased while supply has dried up, blaster boxes of 2012 Topps Chrome Football, which sold for $19.99 at retail at Target and Wal-Mart, are now going for $30 to $35 a pop on eBay. Meanwhile, 12-box hobby cases of the same set -- which could be had for less than $1,300 as recently as January -- are now pushing $1,700 to $1,800 per case.

With the 2013 NFL Draft just weeks away -- and with the first 2013 NFL sets featuring players who haven't even been drafted yet are already on the market -- are we in for an encore?

On one hand, retailers and collectors alike have expressed concern over what is perceived to be an exceptionally weak 2013 NFL draft class. On the other hand, at last month's Industry Summit in Las Vegas, card manufacturers were quick to point out that players can emerge seemingly out of nowhere. After all, Wilson was a third-round pick, while Alfred Morris flew so under the radar as a sixth-round selection that he wasn't even included in the 2012 Topps Chrome set.

Are the card manufacturers right to be optimistic?

The short answer is probably not. Following is a list of the top 16 base rookie cards by ungraded book value from the Topps Chrome Football sets from 2004 to 2012. Also included are their graded BGS 9.5 Gem Mint values where available according to Beckett.com, as well as the adjusted multiple (the graded value multiple to ungraded book value, adjusted for the cost of getting a card graded, which is assumed to be $10).

Notice anything?

Top 15 Topps Chrome Football Base RCs, 2004-2012

Card

Card Number

Position

Ungraded BV

BGS 9.5

Adjusted Multiple

2004 Topps Chrome Ben Roethlisberger RC	166	Quarterback	$40	$100	2.0
2004 Topps Chrome Eli Manning RC	205	Quarterback	$30	$80	2.0
2005 Topps Chrome Aaron Rodgers RC	190	Quarterback	$80	$250	2.8
2005 Topps Chrome Phillip Rivers RC	230	Quarterback	$12	$50	2.3
2005 Topps Chrome Larry Fitzgerald RC	215	Wide Receiver	$12	$50	2.3
2005 Topps Chrome Sean Taylor RC	202	Safety	$12	--
2007 Topps Chrome Adrian Peterson RC	TC181	Running Back	$25	$60	1.7
2007 Topps Chrome Calvin Johnson RC	TC200	Wide Receiver	$15	$35	1.4
2008 Topps Chrome Matt Ryan RC	TC166	Quarterback	$12	$40	1.8
2008 Topps Chrome Joe Flacco RC	TC170	Quarterback	$12	$35	1.4
2009 Topps Chrome Matthew Stafford RC	TC210	Quarterback	$15	$50	2.0
2010 Topps Chrome Tim Tebow RC	190	Quarterback	$12	$40	1.8
2011 Topps Chrome Colin Kaepernick RC	25	Quarterback	$12	--
2012 Topps Chrome Andrew Luck RC	1	Quarterback	$15	--
2012 Topps Chrome Robert Griffin III RC	200	Quarterback	$12	--

Source: Beckett.com. The 2007 Topps Chrome Michael Vick is a short print, with a print run of 999 copies according to Beckett.com.

Of the top 15 rookie cards from 2004 to 2012, all but four of the players are quarterbacks, including the last seven players from 2008 to 2012. Meanwhile, only one player -- the late Sean Taylor -- was on the defensive side of the ball, while the other three players all play skill positions.

The 2013 NFL Draft appears exceptionally weak where it counts. Only one QB -- Geno Smith of West Virginia -- even merits a first-round grade according to Scouts, as found on ESPN.com's NFL Draft page. Moreover, Scouts has Smith as only the 20th-ranked player in the draft, and it might scare you to note that Blaine Gabbert of the Jacksonville Jaguars had a higher pre-draft rating in his 2011 draft year.

And if you're looking for offensive stars outside the quarterback position, Scouts doesn't have a wide receiver or running back in its top 15, either. As such, the odds are strongly against the emergence of a truly elite wide receiver like Calvin Johnson or a running back like Adrian Peterson from the 2013 draft.

Indeed, the top of the 2013 NFL Draft appears to be strong on defense and on offensive linemen, but weak where it counts on cardboard. And while it's always possible that a Russell Wilson or an Alfred Morris -- or a Colin Kaepernick, for that matter -- could emerge, this might be a good year for football card investor/collectors to take it easy and sit on the sidelines, or otherwise take a wait-and-see approach.

2013 NFL Draft: Position Breakdown of ESPN.com/Scouts Top 32

Position

No. of Players

Defensive Tackle	6
Offensive Tackle	4
Defensive End	4
Linebacker	4
Cornerback	4
Guard	3
Wide Receiver	3
Quarterback	1
Tight End	1
Safety	1
Running Back	1

For more of Jeff's analysis on this topic:

The Investment Profile of the Modern Baseball Card Have Baseball Card Values Risen in 20 Years? Actually ...

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