Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Today's 3 Best Stocks

In yet another in a series of unexpected moves by the broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) , we were offered disappointing factory data only to have the investors shrug off the bad news and buy Friday's dip.

Today's most important news was the Institute for Supply Management's factory index, which fell to 49 in May. Any figure below 50 signals contraction, and this was a pretty sizable drop from the 50.7 reported in April. What's even more confusing is that the Chicago PMI last week was extraordinarily strong at 58.7, which signaled robust manufacturing growth in the Midwest. The likely answer is that the true growth rate of the manufacturing and factory subset is somewhere in the middle of these two figures, which would put the U.S. economy on a continued slow, but steady, recovery.

For the day, the S&P advanced by 9.68 points (0.59%) to close at 1,640.42. There were also plenty of other solid performances within the index today; here's a glimpse at the top three.

Chip maker Intel (NASDAQ: INTC  ) led the charge, rising by 4%, after Samsung introduced its new Galaxy Note 3 tablet, which runs on Google's Android operating system but has an Intel microprocessor inside. Previous to this tablet, Intel hadn't worked its way into any tablets other than those run on Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) Windows OS. In fact, Intel's dominance in microprocessors is based almost entirely on its long-running partnership with Microsoft and its Windows OS. However, today's news gives investors hope that Intel will be able to break outside the box and gain industrywide acceptance as it attempts to move beyond just being a PC-processor supplier. All told, I'm impressed with Intel's innovation and consider it the strongest name in technology hardware.

Big Pharma giant Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) delivered a solid 3.8% gain after reporting encouraging early-stage data on Lambrolizumab, its experimental anti-PD-1 antibody, at the American Society of Clinical Oncology's annual meeting. According to the phase 1b data, Lambrolizumab showed a phenomenal overall response rate of 38% in treating advanced melanoma. Furthermore, most of the adverse events were grade 1/2 (the less serious type), meaning the treatment was generally well tolerated. Immunotherapy stocks were certainly the stars of ASCO, and now all eyes will be on Merck and its anti-PD-1 drug moving forward.

Finally, game and game accessories retailer GameStop (NYSE: GME  ) added 3.7% in spite of some mounting worries that its used-game sales will suffer with the introduction of new gaming consoles that have built in fail-safes to prevent secondary users from playing a game. GameStop has been closing stores, cutting costs, and focusing on digital gaming to prepare itself for this inevitable shift. The company has had quite the run in anticipation of Microsoft's Xbox One and the debut of Sony's PlayStation 4 later this year, so now may not be a bad time to consider taking some of your profits off the table.

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Why Arctic Cat Is at All-Time Highs

On Wednesday, Arctic Cat (NASDAQ: ACAT  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

More than most businesses, Arctic Cat depends on the weather to provide enough winter snow to drive sales of its snowmobiles. After some difficult seasons in past year, the company has hoped to rebound with a return to more normal conditions. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Arctic Cat over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Arctic Cat

Analyst EPS Estimate

($0.40)

Year-Ago EPS

($0.49)

Revenue Estimate

$121.2 million

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

23%

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

3

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

How did Arctic Cat's winter fare?
Analysts have kept their views stable in recent months on Arctic Cat's earnings, leaving estimates for the March quarter unchanged while cutting fiscal-year 2014 projections by $0.02 per share. But the stock has performed very well, climbing more than 30% since early February.

Winter has been kind to Arctic Cat and a number of other companies that rely on snow for their business. Ski-resort operator Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN  ) got out to a slow start this season, leading to an earnings shortfall for its January quarter, but better snow totals later in the season have sent its stock rising sharply. Arctic Cat hopes to benefit from the same conditions.

Yet the March quarter is traditionally a slow period for Arctic Cat because of its concentration on snowmobiles. The company also makes all-terrain vehicles in an attempt to diversify its seasonal exposure, but rival Polaris (NYSE: PII  ) has done a far better job of building out an all-season lineup of vehicles that includes not only snowmobiles and ATVs but also motorcycles. For its part, Polaris reported record first-quarter sales late last month, and a rise of more than 200% for its snowmobile segment's revenues suggests that Arctic Cat investors should expect solid sales as well.

One promising area for Arctic Cat to grow is in international markets. Given the company's small size, the opportunity from lucrative markets like Canada and northern Europe would be extremely meaningful in boosting the company's snowmobile revenue, and greater ATV penetration could help smooth its sales throughout the year.

In Arctic Cat's quarterly report, be sure to compare its figures closely with those of Polaris. If Arctic Cat can emulate the success of its rival in broadening its customer base, it could go a long way toward justifying the big jump in its shares recently.

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