Yesterday, the folks at RBC Capital Markets predicted that earnings would matter far less than guidance for offshore drillers like Diamond Offshore (DO). They were right.
Bloomberg Diamond Offshore reported a profit of 65 cents a share, easily topping the Street consensus for 56 cents a share, on revenue of $692 million, beating predictions for $684 million.
Despite the beat, shares of Diamond Offshore have fallen 6.4% to $46.83. Cowen’s J.B. Lowe explains why:
The shares will likely react more to the fleet status report that was released last night, which saw the newbuild Ocean BlackRhino secure a contract, but only because it will take over the contract that the Ocean Confidence was set to begin in April 2015. The transfer of this backlog suggests that the BlackRhino could not secure its own contract that commenced in its delivery window. The customer (Murphy Oil (MUR)) has the option to extend the original 285-day contract at $550k/d to a 2-year contract at $500k/d, or a 3-year contract at $485k/d. The 485k/d rate represents the step down from recent 3-year contracts in the $550-$600 range. While the rate is above initial speculation of a flat $400k/d rate and our estimate of $450k/d, we think it will be perceived negatively as it serves as a reminder that the trend in ultra-deepwater dayrates remains firmly down. Several positive datapoints recently had seemed to instill a sense of complacency in the market that this contract will likely help dispel.
And with Diamond Offshore being the first of the offshore drillers to report, you can imagine the effect it’s having on others. Seadrill (SDRL) has dropped 1.1% to $37.63, Transocean (RIG) has fallen 2.4% to $42.25, Noble (NE) has declined 2% to $32.51 and Ensco (ESV) is off 1.8% at $53.09.
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